Hidden Numbers in CNN-IBN and Manorama Survey – Survey Pit falls

published on May 11, 2011

Manorama this time tied up with the veteran team of CNN-IBN comprising of Rajdeep Sardesai and Yogendra Yadav who have the “credentials” of  “exactly” predicting the results based on past experience. They have kept their reputation this time too. Please see the screenshots below and remember the maths fundamentals we all learned at high school.

Manorama has given clear options and still the total percentage sometimes add up to 100 and sometimes crosses the 100% mark. This can be only possible if sampling size is not balanced or the observations are manipulated or not recorded properly.Manorama and CNN-IBN says 11% of the audience didn’t respond correctly- Agreed then there should be an option of not clear, unknown in each sector or it should be clearly mentioned whether this is the same 11% which consistently answered unclear or vague across all questions. Even if that is the case the percentages never match.

Eg. When do you decide who you will vote for ? Options are clear On polling day, 2 days before polling, in between the campaign , even before polling started and i don’t know or can’t say exactly. When these definite options are there and say you are interviewing 100 people and they can only choose these options, the total % of each individual bucket should add up to 100%. But as per the exit poll results they only show 90%.

In another question of whether your decision will change if VS has not contested, the total percentage has crossed 100%, which is  a huge error and an impossible situation. There are very few questions where the total percentage matches 100% .

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