On the Libyan uprising

Appearing on top of a wall, Kaddafi ranted against the Libyans pressing against his 40 year old misrule and blamed the al Qaeda to be orchestrating the movement. The Al Qaeda Mediterranean chapter too was quick on its feet pompously swearing support to the rebellion.

Reality check however points to the secular credentials that had been so far displayed and the call by Benghazi lead popular revolt emphasized the formation of a Free and Secular Libyan Interim government.

Popular uprising had seized effectively half of Libyan East Coast, and all across Libya towns are run by civil leaders and tribal heads with defector military personnel guarding ports and ill installations.

Zuwaya revolt and massacre

The first crackdown and brute show of resolve had back fired at Kaddafi who had clearly underestimated the extent of Libyans disenchantment and capacity for defiance.

The fall of Zuwayya merely 75 Kms from Tripoli to rebels had initially shocked Kaddafi, but he seem to have picked neatly on the American compulsions not to intervene because of its client states already embittered by Egyptian uprising and its ostentatious cheering.

With international action slow in its coming, and the rebels yet to have the required military logistic and strategic lead, Kaddafi had acted at once to seal the cracks in the dyke.

At Zuwayya he had managed to drive out the rebels.

At Misrata the defections among his Air Force personnel denied objective. When his Loyalists and mercenary forces attempted to break through the rebel held lines at the airport, 200 Kms from Tripoli, a brilliant seizure by rebels of Loyalist arsenal and turning it against them foiled the bid. The defections among his own air Force completed the flop- as airmen rendered the aircrafts there inoperable and joined the rebels.

Kaddafi loyalists strategically swooped down on Zuwaya realizing shrewdly the closing ring around Kaddafi’s base. By taking back Zuiwaya which was just 75 Kms from Tripoli, Kaddafi loyalist forces have squeezed the rebellion holdings of Misruta between his base at the capital and Sirte- another of his strongholds.

The turning of tides is therefore pinned at Misruta, where residents fear a reprisal and fresh carnages. “Now Misrata is totally under control of the people, but we are worried because we are squeezed between Sirte and Tripoli, which are strongholds of Gadhafi,” a medical resident was quoted as pointing out.

After wresting Zuawaya Kaddafi addressed the massacred town’s populace-

Shame on you, people of Zawiya, control your children,” “They are loyal to bin Laden,” “What do you have to do with bin as pointing Laden, people of Zawiya? They are exploiting young people … I insist it is bin Laden.”

Kaddafi also played to the gallery, seeking to exploit to the hilt American and western concerns of Islamist backing of the uprising.Paradoxically unlike Egypt, neither Muslim brotherhood nor Islamists have any significant following or appeal among Libyans.

Though Kaddafi had made a show of cracking down all the while against Al Qaeda lead Islamists, it is Kaddafi’s regime that spearheaded the pan Islamic movement of global terror.
Kaddafi quickly got the message however that Taliban’s Mullah Omar and saddam failed, and set his image right by distancing from overt Islamist undertakings.

However Libya had all along been along with Iran a State sponsor of Islamic terrorism, especially at Kashmir.Tripoli itself is rocked by popular revolt and the barbarism of Kaddafi’s crack down had only hastened the hitherto sluggish response of the international community.

We had indicated America pointing out that its citizens being still left at battle zones inside Libya, to account for her tight lipped timidity as a decoy. This now should pose no further problem as by late Friday evening a ship hauled out most Americans to Malta.

Its real concerns are not to intervene in Libya in any way as to estrange its client states like Bahrain, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. But the International outcry would now force it to go beyond mere words and sanctions and act with enough teeth that should limit Kaddafi’s options further.

These expected measures include no fly zones to prevent Kaddafi from importing African mercenaries but requires still more measures, of covert actions by its commands who alone can ensure the prevailing over superior stratagem and logistics of Kaddafi’s forces.

These measures have to be channelized via Egypt and lead through the agency of Tunisia.
If news pours in of Tunisian participation and aid for the converging rebel forces that should secure Misruta and encircle and cut off Kaddafi, then we can be sure of a swift defeat and end of days for Kaddafi’s regime.

Otherwise Kaddafi can obtain reverse defections of a few tribal leaders and work a division among the rebels, which would cripple the Rebel holdings and from there on, work the reclaiming of even the Eastern  zones and the pacification of the entire uprising with his
son at the head, after a formal renunciation of power.

Pacification campaign of reprisals Kaddafi loyalists swooped down on SUVs to pick up identified protest activists all over Tripoli and Tajoura neighborhood. Yet, rebel flags of monarchy are atop even inside Tripoli’s and rebels are freely moving about despite Loyalists drive by shootings pouring gunfire into crowds.

Kaddafi mobilized thousands at the square to get back lost grounds, when parts of Tripoli were still witnessing protests and control loosening.

The only way for both Libyans to gain a free society and avoid both Kaddafi’s recycled regime by another name and the Islamist turn with Qaeda’s sponsorship, is for this uprising to win.

And end with the total rout of this brute and a Secular Free Interim government that should be put in its place. Whether America is far sighted and wise enough will be seen in the coming days – The signs of which are the steady advance of rebel forces that should liberate even much of Tripoli and cut Kaddafi off from his Western and South Central corridor of his native strongholds.

Libyans have conducted themselves exceedingly well, in spite of being let down so far. They have mustered the will of demonstrators to work key defections among army brass and diplomats. Though they have with them an able general Abdel, and many commando
units, they are nothing but an ill equipped militia of ragtag compared to state of art hardware and elite units that form Kaddafi’s battalions drawn from his own clansmen.

Covert operations hold the key to this crucial hour and turn of Libyan history.

Note fierce clashes are reported by our Libyan brothers from Misrata to me by email and Video posts.

For live feed from Libya check on my blog-

http://hinduworldvision.wordpress.com/2011/02/26/libya-live-video-feeds-1/

For the detailed analysis that we have made even before the Libyan unrest kindly check at above link.

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