Brexit, What Next?

By G V Chelvapilla published on June 26, 2016
London's bridge to Europe has fallen.

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Brexit vote results showed England does not want to be member of European Union. Much has been said and more will be said too at least in near future about Britain’s Exit, Brexit. And soon after, since public memory is short, it will go on as usual attending to their own problems , ambitions and dreams rather than worrying or giving two hoots to ‘love me or leave me’ debate raging now regarding European Union, the EU.

What is fascinating is how history is unfolding . About 20 years back , two essays and books on them later appeared that caught imagination of academia and lay media. In 1992 Francis Fukushima,Prof at Stanford and other institutions told the world, with end of cold war, victory of West, history has ended. Many felt even then that this thesis was flawed. Little later in 1995 Prof Samuel Huntington of Harvard University came out with an essay in Foreign Affairs Journal , titled ‘The Clash of Civilizations’ , he also authored a book under the same name. These t made sensation at the time and remain valid and very much discussed even to date in contrast . His thesis that Islam with its bloody borders will clash with Western Civilization acted more like a script for coming movie on the subject performed by actors like Boko Haram, Al Qaeda and now Islamic Caliphate.

At present Brexit may not have much to do with these elements but they are all there very much in back ground to bring next crisis -not just to Britain but to Europe regardless who exits from or who stays in EU. Now let us see what Brexit holds in immediate future.

Regardless of protagonists of stay or leave , every one agrees people of Britain have spoken, vox populi is heard loud and clear or may not be so loud, because vote to leave approximately 51% in favor vs 48+ % to stay is not that overwhelming to drown other voices. Besides democratic tradition, by this vote Britain has also affirmed its own traditional value- taking rather than giving which has been the case during the preceding period to present , during era of imperialism.

EU has members like Greece which are interested in getting loans and financing but not paying back. England as one of contributing member along with Germany and France is tired of supporting dead beats besides being vexed with losing its freedom to dictates of bureaucrats in Brussels, Capital city of European Union and its central secretariat . London for more than a century preceding present one is not used to taking orders but only in giving them to denizens of vast empire it controlled. More over England was doing well before there was a European Union which actually was no union, because though politically borders are erased, free comings and goings across them with one passport or in receiving state support or hand outs if one shifts location from one state to another, there has been no currency union . Major partners maintained their own currency , England had its pound along with EU currency, so did others, though ironically the union was preceded by agreement on money matters. Remember Common Market ?

Also unstated nevertheless may well be in the minds of British, is the problem of Moslem migrants (MM) which EU members were encouraged to accommodate by UN and US. Britain has already its share of enough of them before massive migration began from West Asia to major cities, towns and hinterlands, that is to every nook and corner of European countries. Whether legally arrived or illegally migrated MM became asylum seekers thus getting all the benefits the Crown doles out for such category. This system was initiated in the aftermath of world wars with flow of refugees from war torn states on the continent, now being bilked , milked fully exploited by MM.
In turn the burden of MM on Europe, with Turkey facilitating their dispersal into various European countries and Greek sending the bill, for expenses to maintain, transport MM to EU countries, that will have to be paid by members like UK, France and Germany, frugal British when many of their own are sleeping on streets homeless.

Even the before the vote, UK was caught in lose-lose situation. If Brexit did not pass, then the problems of being a member of EU sharing the burdens of none of their own would have remained for UK. And if it passed ? President Obama predicted before the vote results , should Brexit pass, England will move to last in trade line. Trump , presumptive nominee of opposing Republican party however assured that should he be elected, British will move to the front of same line. Anyway regardless of their presence in any part of any line, should UK succeed after breakup , improve economically, there are other states in EU who are watching . If lone Britain succeeds, prospers getting out of EU, it will provide incentive to other members of EU to leave.

In the whole world lowest GDP belongs to Zimbabwe. But Zimbabwe bonds fetch highest interest rates. Italy a member of EU holds lots of them, useless because they may not be able to redeem them . But so far Italy is not worried but there is EU to bail them out like they did with Greece. But if EU comes to unravel, Italy may chose to leave after referendum titled -Italeave . Portugal may drop out- Droportugal ballot measure, Austria with Oustria even Paris may take French leave, Spain may vanish from EU into its own plains chalking out its own plans not caring for those of Brussels, Finland with Finnish. Scotland and N Ireland present interesting scenarios, at present they are part of UK. But both voted to stay in EU, but their wishes are not fulfilled since Brexit vote passed. So they too want to leave- not EU but UK. First minister of Scotland may propose a measure titled Scotfree , through renewing demand for a Scotland free from being part of UK. N Ireland want to join its motherland Ireland in south rather than stay in UK.Only essentially Germany will be left holding the bag so to speak. Or may be not. Germany also sees advantage of not having an EU because many seers – science of economics is as certain as astrology- predict future of Germany without being burdened with EU problems will be much better and brighter, the same reasons why majority in Britain voted to leave.

At present however remaining EU nations presented an united front. Still their unhappiness with Brexit is evident , when during a meeting of founding members of EU just to day, ( UK was not invited), French Foreign minister said, if Britian wants to get out, then should leave immediately.

Thus EU is indeed is facing an existential crisis. And European civilization itself will have to confront sooner or later yet another even more serious crisis – clash of civilizations , its own vs Islamic one with its bloody borders.

With in Europe Turkey and Kosovo are existing Islamic States. They have defined borders,are states and are identifiable entities world has known all along history either to be friends with or fight against. But how does one tackle an amorphous enemy that like smoke from chimneys spread to every nook and corner of Europe , with many world leaders certifying majority of them are law abiding peace loving ? Embedded Jihadis in the midst of this nice, peace loving MM have their presence in entire Europe stretching from Aral sea to Atlantic ocean. Add to this burgeoning burden , the dwindling numbers of native Europeans who forgot how to produce children or win a war unless America or Russia or both help them, there is genuine fear unless steps are taken, Europe as we know it to day will disappear. It will be much bigger crisis which goes far beyond the money like Briexit now that Europe will have to confront whether it likes it or not.

So in due course if unchecked , either there will be more Islamic States dotting the landscape or Europe itself will become a Eurabia complete with writ of Shariat running entire continent.

Thus what Europe is experiencing now with Brexit is only a warning, ringing of alarm bell of what even more serious , indeed existential threat to its civilization not just to its economy is there brewing. If interested further, please see this detailed article from Council on Foreign Relations website.

Europe’s Angry Muslims – Council on Foreign Relations

It may be noted, if India’s history is any guide, nay even if that of Arabia is any guide, should the creed of ‘false alefs’ as Nostradamus mentions in his quatrains, triumph in Europe , its civilization is bound to meet the same fate as temples, libraries and universities in India or that of Egypt , Syria , once highly advanced civilizations.

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As things go, as history is unfolding before us , being seen daily all over the world on TV screens, developments are taking place to counter growing menace of Islamists. However it is termed, ‘overseas contingency, work place violence’ the writ of Islamic Caliphate , a confluence of various other outfits with different names, as pointed by Narendra Modi in his address to US Congress, is written all over the world where terror attacks took or taking place- from Orlando to Mogadhishu. The attack in Somalia’s city is now taking place with gunmen still firing in the hotel in Mogadhishu.

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